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Post by winterlong on Oct 24, 2006 8:07:30 GMT 10
I'm not a gambler (not even at Melbourne Cup time), but the odds for the winner are an interesting indication of current thinking....
at Centrebet, this morning:
MAUBOY, Jessica 2.25 GEYER, Dean 3.00 LEITH, Damien 4.50 MURPHY, Chris 10.00 MUSCAT, Ricky 15.00
Before last Sunday Dean was in first place with $2.50/$2.75 to win, and Damien was in third with $5/$5.50 to win.
Interesting ;D
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Post by shimmery on Oct 24, 2006 11:58:15 GMT 10
mmmm Damien is shortening - a good sign!
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Post by Neski on Oct 24, 2006 15:22:36 GMT 10
could someone elxplain the whole concept of how poeple bet if people are winning and whats with the amount of the figures (if you get what i mean!)
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Post by shimmery on Oct 24, 2006 17:23:36 GMT 10
Ok, well basically you have to be 18 or over to have a betting account and if people choose to bet with a bookmaker, they can put money on early, before an event, with the possibility of winning if the result they bet on happens - in other words it's like a futures market. So that means the lowest price is the price the bookmaker thinks is the one who will win - i.e. they don't want to give a lot of money away, and if that person wins they won't have to give as much away as a person for a big price. Let's say you put $10 on Damien to win and his price is $4.50. If he wins you get back 10 x $4.50 = $45. If you had just $3 on Ricky and he won you'd also get $45 - because you'd get 3 x $15 (his price). Lol, btw I don't bet on people in competitions! But I very much enjoy going to the races, so I know my way around the odds
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Post by Neski on Oct 24, 2006 18:06:57 GMT 10
haha thanks shim now i understand ;D
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lissa
Lead Vocalist
Posts: 322
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Post by lissa on Oct 24, 2006 19:41:55 GMT 10
thanks shim now i understand too
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Post by Selestial on Oct 25, 2006 12:35:43 GMT 10
I hope you don't hate me for thinking this, but (even though I love Damien!) I watched the very first audition show of Idol and when I heard Jessica, I immediately thought she was the Winner!! I was told by my boss I could go and put a bet on it at that time, and now wish I had because the odds would have been huge!! Now not 100% sure that Jessica will win, of course.
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Post by winterlong on Oct 25, 2006 12:50:39 GMT 10
Looks like Centrebet isnt the only place running an Idol book - these odds are from Sportsbet: Jessica Mauboy 2.50 Dean Geyer 2.75 Damien Leith 3.50 Chris Murphy 9.00 Ricky Muscat 15.00
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lindy
Auditionee
Posts: 19
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Post by lindy on Oct 26, 2006 8:27:13 GMT 10
Looks like Centrebet isnt the only place running an Idol book - these odds are from Sportsbet: Jessica Mauboy 2.50 Dean Geyer 2.75 Damien Leith 3.50 Chris Murphy 9.00 Ricky Muscat 15.00 I have been following the odds for weeks and Damien's odds are shortening as the comp goes on. There is quite detailed research behind these odds including checking out the bloggs to see what people are saying it is quite fascinating.
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Post by winterlong on Oct 26, 2006 12:23:56 GMT 10
Hey lindy, do you know how long his odds have been? I cant remember them being longer than $6, but I havent really been paying attention
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Post by winterlong on Oct 31, 2006 7:20:30 GMT 10
Latest Centrebet odds:MAUBOY, Jessica 1.90 LEITH, Damien 4.00 GEYER, Dean 4.50 MURPHY, Chris 7.50 Damien, Jess and Chris have shortened, Dean has lenghtened ...and dropped back to third!
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Post by murfinator on Oct 31, 2006 11:23:21 GMT 10
awesome!
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Post by winterlong on Oct 31, 2006 12:13:54 GMT 10
Latest Sportsbet Odds:
Jessica Mauboy 1.90 Damien Leith 3.20 Dean Geyer 4.20 Chris Murphy 7.00
Same trend as Centrebet, with D entering 2nd favourite position ;D
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irishscorpio
Record Producer
"..Quiet down cobwebs, dust go to sleep, I'm rocking my baby and babies don't keep"
Posts: 1,355
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Post by irishscorpio on Nov 6, 2006 13:03:06 GMT 10
Does anyone know if this has been updated yet?
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Post by winterlong on Nov 7, 2006 7:26:49 GMT 10
You rang Vixen? Happy Cup Day folks, I think you're going to like these odds... Centrebetfor the win:MAUBOY, Jessica 1.83 LEITH, Damien 2.60 GEYER, Dean 6.00 for next evictee:GEYER, Dean 1.61 LEITH, Damien 3.50 MAUBOY, Jessica 5.00 Sportsbets arent up yet, will check later....
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